Recently Worldsteel released this year of
global steel short-term demand prospect, expected global steel consumption increase
3.1%, reached 1.475 billion tons, 2014 will increase 3.3 %, reaching 1.523
Hans Jurgen Kerkhoff, who is responsible
for economic research in Worldsteel said, the main risk of the global economy
is euro zone debt crisis and China’s economic hard landing problems, however,
recently the recovery of crisis in good shape. Major emerging economies,
especially India and Brazil, the performance is not satisfactory due to
structural problem, these factors have led to the slow increase in global
demand for steel. This year Chinese steel demand will increase 6.0%, rest of
the world will increase only 0.7%, global steel demand will increase 3.1% this
Worldsteel expects, 2014 global steel
demand will continue to show recovery trend, developed countries will grow,
while China’s growth momentum will slow down.
Despite the developed countries getting
away from the risk, developing countries of structural problems, political instability
and volatility in financial markets is still uncertainty. Overall, the global
economic situation in the steel industry remains unstable, however, we expect
2014 steel demand will grow further.
China: Following the 2012 steel consumption
increased 2.9%, this year will increase 6.0% to reach 699.7 million tons, which
is mainly benefited from government infrastructure stimulus. However,
government limit investment, 2014 steel demand growth is expected to slow to
India: last year increased 2.6%, the
consumption of steel is expected to increase 3.4% this year, reaching 74
million tons, India’s high inflation pressures and structural problems limit
the steel sector activities. India government to expedite the implementation of
structural reforms, steel demand is expected to increase 5.6% in 2014.
Japan: The economic situation has improved,
government stimulus will boost steel demand growth of 0.1% in this year to
reach 64 million tons. However, 2014 outlook is not optimistic, due to the
presence of new consumption taxes, manufacturing outward migration and energy
prices rising too fast of problems, steel demand is expected to drop 1.6
percent next year.
United States: Following last year’s
increase of 7.8%, this year the steel consumption will increase only 0.7%,
reaching 96.9 million tons. Benefited from the global economy to improve,
automotive, energy and residential construction sector activity increased, steel
demand will increase 3.0% in 2014.
EU: in particular the first half of this
year, steel sector activity continued to contract, steel consumption this year
is expected to drop 3.8%, reduced to 135 million tons. Italy and Spain were respectively
reduced 8.1% and 4.3%, reduced 1.6% in Germany. 2014 outlook is hopefulness,
but the EU overall steel demand remains poor, next year will increase only 2.1
percent, to 138 million tons.
Middle East and North Africa: Due to
continued political unrest, this year steel demand slowed to 1.7%, reaching
64.3 million tons. In the effect of the re-start investment projects and
government efforts to combat social unrest, steel demand is expected to
increase 7.3% in 2014, reaching 69 million tons.