July 2011 off-season to improve steel, billet broken in August 4500 yuan, 4530 yuan rushed on; building materials continue to rise, whether from the market rebounded in August to reverse evolution?I try to analyze the trend characteristics of the steel city in July, sentenced to research the next phase of market trends.
July 2011 rebound in steel prices steel market information, promotion experts Hu Zhenchuan that has the following characteristics:
1 the four major factors driving the spot market steel prices rebound
First, the incentive for this market is approaching July (15 futures delivery, and the futures price and the market price substantially upside down, bargain-hunting money move up market entry, driven by spot market prices rebounded. Second, there is a rebound in market conditions themselves, July 1, net estimated cost of 150 carbon steel billet price and the price comparison, is near the cost line, causing hunters flock capital market purchases; billet market price of 4180 yuan and two large steel 4910 yuan, up 730 yuan spread; two factors support the billet prices rebounded, led by the market return to reasonable price range. Third, time is short this year, market demand for construction materials (7 weeks less than 10-12 weeks in previous years, demand did not focus on the full release; a substantial increase in costs, the increaselower than in previous years, while iron ore raw material and fuel costs continue to support efforts to strengthen the market price there is upside; tight monetary policy tightening of the market in general funds, the financial cost of rising costs, control of the downstream china steel company, bulk purchases, mainly used in April and Maysteel industry, raw materials inventory index, or 50% or less than a year ago, making the seasonal demand for steel is not obvious, the callback time is short, the traditional off-season continues rebound Fourth, this year’s high yields, increased downstream users watchingwaiting for low-cost mentality, to suppress the rising steel prices.
2 species did not increase the overall gains over one hundred yuan differentiation
Continuation of the market rebounded in July, four weeks, the end 150 Carbon Tangshan billet 4470 yuan, the profit is over 300 yuan per ton, and steel spread narrowed to $ 500.But the overall increase is not over hundred dollars, species differentiation gains significant, long timber or large, flat plate; steel price index trend analysis from Lange, Lange steel price index to the end point of 193.9, up 3.3 points over the end of June rose 1.7%, China long steel plate price rose 86 yuan; which rose 2.17% long products, plate rose 0.89%.China’s top ten cities in the main varieties of the end of week price, high line 4860 yuan / ton, the largest increase up 100; plate or the lowest, up 10 yuan.
3 steel prices rebound in supply and demand fundamentals are not changed
The recent rebound in steel prices is not supply and demand fundamentals change, but pulled up driven by futures prices, in general, there is no effective demand to see enlarged.
Difficult market rally plate, and the manufacturing PMI index has declined for four consecutive months, indicating China’s economy is still in the callback process is consistent.July steel downstream steel industry, fabricated metal products and general-purpose equipment manufacturing PMI index contracted intervals; fabricated metal products industry new orders index, production index of 50% or less.Iron and steel industry, the new export orders index below 50%.
In addition, long-rally was good material, but the steel circulation in July PMI sub-index data also shows that the off-season in July is still in demand, the market follow-up, lack of motivation is both manufacturing and investment in fixed assets associated with the construction machinery industryIn June, in addition to outside loaders, excavators, bulldozers, road rollers and cranes continued negative growth in sales of models.Construction machinery is expected with overall sales in July, unchanged from June, the main product may still be maintained compared to last year of negative growth.