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July international steel market supply and demand to mitigate

July, most of Asia will enter the rainy and
hot weather, seasonal decline in demand will occur, meanwhile mills will also
begin seasonal maintenance reduction of output, supply will decline.

 

First half of year the international market
has appeared four major characteristics.

Asian supply continues to remain high. From
January to May this year, world’s 63 major steel-producing countries and
regions in crude steel production was 658 million tons, an increase of 2.1%. May,
the world’s 63 major steel-producing countries and regions in crude steel
production is 136.3 million tons, an increase of 2.6%.

Stocks continue to decline. In June, the
Chinese stock market continues to decline, inventory pressures have eased, but
the steel stocks are still at a high level. May, the U.S. service center
inventory continues to decline, the market demand recovery, inventory pressure
is very small; South Korea and Japan stocks continue to decline, which related
primarily to reduction of steel production; European stocks increased slightly,
weak demand and the decline in exports is the main reason. In addition to
China, the world’s leading region in May this year, steel stocks were lower
than last year and the year earlier level, which has little pressure on the
stock market, and there is the late replenishment needs.

Weakly adjust in raw material prices. June,
the international raw material prices continue to decline. United States and
Japan to maintain the overall downward trend in scrap prices, Turkish import
prices bottoming out, the whole remains weak. July, August the global market to
enter the off-season demand, scrap and pig iron prices are difficultly expected
to have a good performance, probability of post-consolidation operation is
larger.

Weak demand continues to run. June, global
steel demand growth remains weak intensity, July, August the northern
hemisphere enter rainy season, the seasonal decline in market demand.

European market: the downward trend has
eased

June, the European market continues to
decline, the downward trend has eased. Sheet prices continue to decline, the
Nordic HRC ex-works compared to last year dropped by nearly 90 euro/ ton. Currently,
the South, the Nordic price level is equivalent and steel may close to the
bottom, with the ore price rise and inlet pressure weakened, the market is
unlikely to fall further. However, the overall demand outlook bleak, European
coil market may weak consolidation in later period. Long steel market continued
to decline, since June Nordic scrap prices fell 25 euro / ton, follow by scrap,
local rebar and wire rod prices fall 10 euro / ton, the southern European rebar
selling price dropped to 465 euro / ton to 470 euro / ton.

U.S. Market: sheet rebound, weak longs

June U.S. HRC ex-works rose to $ 620 / ton
to $ 640 / ton, cold rolled coil price is 720 $ / ton to 740 $ / ton. Thick
market fell, currently below the level of $ 680 / ton to 700 $ / ton, which is the
lowest since this year, steel market is expected to near the bottom. U.S. rebar
market is steady. Basic specifications of the local rebar prices remain at $
620 / ton to 640 $/ ton level.

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